Where Did 261,000 Learners Go? What the Nation Found as National Exams Begin

As Grade Six and Grade Nine learners began their national assessments this week, with KCSE candidates to follow, some students are missing. Where are they?

According to a report by the Nation, at least 261,000 learners who should have been part of this year’s Kenya Certificate of Secondary Education (KCSE) and Kenya Junior School Education Assessment (KJSEA) cohorts are unaccounted for. The report raises questions about the government’s 100 per cent transition policy.

The Nation compared Kenya National Examinations Council (KNEC) data across cohorts:

• KCSE: 1,233,852 candidates sat KCPE in 2022, but only 1,048,355 are registered for KCSE this year. That is a gap of 185,497, or 15.03 per cent of the 2022 cohort.
• KJSEA: 1,281,210 candidates sat KPSEA in 2023, but 1,206,028 are registered for KJSEA. That is a gap of 75,182, or 5.87 per cent.

Together, that comes to 260,679 learners.

Importantly, the gap does not mean all these learners dropped out of school. Education Cabinet Secretary Julius Ogamba told the Nation that several factors explain the difference:

1. Natural attrition. Some learners have died or are otherwise unable to continue with their education.
2. Switching curricula. Some learners moved to alternative curricula, such as those offered in international schools, and so no longer sit Kenyan national exams.
3. Dropouts and delayed progression. Some learners step out temporarily, for instance because of early pregnancy or sickness. The CS assured that those are given the opportunity to rejoin once they are able.

Mr Ogamba added that he would give a more detailed response to the data later. Until then, the breakdown of how many learners fall into each category remains unknown.

The gap is a question about a policy promise. Under the 100 per cent transition policy, every learner who completes one level is expected to move to the next. The numbers show a drop between cohorts, and without a category-by-category breakdown, it is hard to tell how many learners simply changed schools or curricula and how many have left the system.

All three exams have grown this year, according to figures shared at the launch of the 2026 exam season. KPSEA registration rose to 1,380,463 from 1,298,089 last year, KJSEA to 1,206,028 from 1,130,679, and KCSE to 1,048,355 from 996,078. Together, 3,634,846 learners are registered across the three.

What parents can take from this

The CS’s explanation points out that a break in schooling is not always the end of the road. Where a child has stepped away because of illness, pregnancy or other circumstances, the government’s stated position is that they can return. Parents and guardians in that situation can start by speaking with the school head or the local education office about what re-entry would involve.

Parents of children still in school can also watch for early warning signs, such as long absences, falling grades or sudden loss of interest, and raise them with teachers before a temporary break becomes a permanent exit.

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This article is based on reporting by the Nation (“261,000 learners missing as national examinations begin”), published by Nation Media Group.